class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Understanding Policies: A Scientific Approach ## Understanding Policies: Interdisciplinary Perspectives and Case Illustrations (10700193) ### Yue HU ### Political Science, Tsinghua University --- ## Administrative -- 1. Thank you for keeping coming! -- 1. Syllabus updated. + Slides needed? -- 1. First assignment + Group assignment + Topic choice --- ## Overview 1. .blue[Landscape] of policy analysis 1. Understanding policies .red[scientifically] + Steps of scientific inquiries + Necessity to understand policies scientifically --- class: inverse, bottom # Previously in the *Understanding Policies*... --- ## A Taste of the Professional Area Who are the (potentially) professionals? + Major: + Public Policy/Administration + Social Policy/Administration + Degree: Ph.D., MPA -- + Over 200 institutions by 2014 --- ## The Top Dogs .left-column[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_qs20191.png" height = 500 />] -- .right-column[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_qs20192.png" height = 500 />] --- .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_qs20193.png" height = 600 />] ??? Reference: "[QS World University Ranking](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/university-subject-rankings/2019/social-policy-administration#indicator-tab)" Quacquarelli Symonds: a British company specializing in education Previous known as "Times Higher Education-QS World University Rankings" --- ## What Makes Them the Best? .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_measureDogs.jpg" height = 450 />] -- .center[*Spoiler alert: the .red[evaluation]*] ??? Goal of the policies --- ### Indicators 1. Academic reputation .small[(respondents from 83,000 academics)] 1. Employer reputation .small[(42,000 responses from graduate employers worldwide)] 1. Research citations per paper 1. H-index .small[(the most cited papers and the number of citations that they have received in other publications)] -- &rArr; .red[Weighted] results ??? Weight: based on area, e.g. publication rates are very high, research citations and the h-index account for 25% of each university's total score. .orange[NEXT]: Let's compare the U.S. and China, Talk about approach, content, and instructors --- ## Approach | Approach | China | U.S. | |------------------|-------|------| | Outsider¹ | 55% | | | Limited insider² | 15% | 75% | | In-depth insider³ | 30% | 25% | .right[.small[Source: He et al 2016, Table 4]] .footnote[ [1] Solely of public policy .blue[theories]. [2] Positivist .blue[framework] and .red[analysis] based on welfare economics. [3] Strong .red[analytic orientation] ] --- ## Content ### China Public policy theories, policy environments, and policy processes -- ### U.S. Welfare economics, rational modeling, utilities --- background-image: url("data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_heetal2016tb3.png") background-position: center background-size: contain ??? The U.S, on Cost-benefit analysis and below, strategy of policy making --- ## Instructors .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_heetal2016tb2.png" height = 500 />] ??? Few Chinese instructors focus on applied policy research **NEXT**: In this class, teaching positivist policy analysis based on *social scientific paradigm*. Is that even possible? --- class: inverse, bottom <video width="700" height="500" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_sheldon_socialScience.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> # Being a .blue[Scientist] of the Human Society ??? Why do we need being scientific --- ## Paradigms to Understand Policies > Paradigm: a bag of theories, research methods, postulates, and standards for what constitutes contributions to a field. -- + Positivist: + *Data*-based + Problem solving through systematic queries ??? Dominant, 实证主义 Re-imported from the French word positivisme(/positee vish men/), derived from positif in its sense of 'imposed on the mind by experience'. -- + Post-positivist + *Culture*-based (norms, morality, values) + Normative, ethical process ??? .greenLight[Q]: Does Positivist mean scientific? --- ## A Story On the Omniscience Internet, a doc of traditional medicine told a [story](http://szyyj.gd.gov.cn/zyyfw/ysbj/content/post_2541293.html) about drinking water. .center[《为什么外国人喝凉水没事》 之 “每天早晨喝一杯凉水，是一个错误的养生做法”] --- > 每天早晨喝一杯凉水，是一个错误的养生做法……[大历害老医师]是偶然发现这个问题的，当时他在给一位女士调理身体，本来调理得很好……突然有一天，再诊脉的时候，发现她的舌质又淡白了，舌体胖大，病情反复，忙问这是怎么回事儿？她回答，半个月前，看到电视里面有养生专家让晨起喝凉水，于是坚持了这些天，已经腹泻了很多次了。这么样，损失了阳气，导致水湿重。有位中医也被这一说法骗了……最后竟然收集了几百例的病例，都是晨起喝凉水，导致的各种复杂古怪的病症的。 ??? .greenLight[Q]: How do you feel? Convincing? --- class: small ## Let's Decompose It *Problem* "给一位女士调理身体，本来调理得很好……突然有一天，再诊脉的时候，发现她的舌质又淡白了，舌体胖大，.red[病情反复]。" -- *Theory* ".blue[损失了阳气]，导致水湿重。" -- *Evidence* "晨起喝凉水，于是坚持了这些天，已经.blue[腹泻]了很多次了。" -- *Conclusion* "每天早晨喝一杯凉水，是一个.red[错误]的养生做法" --- ## Why's this Story Convincing? "Seeing is believing" Half-way scientific inquiry: A human inquiry <video width="700" height="400" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_Charle's_Angle_ScientistScene.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> ??? Charle's Angle, 2019, Columbia Pictures, Elizabeth Banks' film Let's see another example: mushroom --- .left-column[ ### Eatable? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_mushroom.jpg" height = 300 /> ] -- .right-column[ ### Find your BFF and observe... <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_mushroomT.jpg" height = 300 /> ] -- What's the Problem Then? --- ## An eclipse in 2017 .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/sci_trumpEclipse.jpg" height = 300 />] ??? /ɪkl'ɪps/ -- Was the former POTUS idiot? --- ## Depending on Whether You Observe Enough <video width="700" height="500" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_Trump Watches Eclipse From White House.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> --- ## Flaws of Human Inquiries Selection observation -- Inaccurate observation -- Overgeneralization -- Illogical reasoning ...... ??? .orange[NEXT]: What should we do? --- ## Human &rarr; Scientific Inquiries After the guessing/hypothesis... -- .pull-left[ ### Data Collection .blue[Valid] + Representative .blue[Sufficient] + Diverse ] -- .pull-right[ ### Analysis .blue[Proper] P &rarr; A &rarr; M & M &rArr; implications/conclusions ] ??? Perspective, approach, method and measurement Approach includes inductive and deductive, elaborated later .orange[NEXT]: Why are these scientific? --- ## Why Are These More Scientific? -- .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/phiSci.png" height = 400 />] --- ## Why Being Scientific? Data (observations) alone are not enough~ 1. Where to find data? 1. Are the data legit? 1. How to make sense of the data? -- &rArr; Conducting .red[credible] analyses Assumption + Theory &rarr; Method + Data &rarr; Conclusion ??? Another way to say: Perspective, approach, method and measurement --- ## Scientific Process in Scientific Terms .pull-left[ ### Three(Four) Steps¹ Exploration Description Explanation (Prediction) ] .footnote[ [1] NB: No need to complete in one piece. ] ??? NB: Notare bene (note well) -- .pull-right[ ### Two Approaches Inductive Deductive ] ??? .orange[NEXT]: Explained in the next page --- background-image: url("data:image/png;base64,#images/wheelScience.png") background-position: center background-size: contain ??? The mushroom, the traditional medicine are inductive --- class: inverse, bottom # Is Science Always Wannted? --- .center[Credibility vs. Strong conclusions] .bg-black.golden.ba.shadow-5.ph4.mt3[ .center[ ## The Law of Decreasing Credibility Credibility .red[&darr;] when strength of assumptions .blue[&uarr;]] ] ??? 只要有疫苗了，我们就安全了 疫苗是战胜新冠病毒之制胜关键 --- ## When Strong Conclusions Are Needed... Congressional Budget Office & Joint Committee on Taxation: 1. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 1. Reconciliation Act --- .left-column[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/elemendorf.jfif" height = 200 />] .right-column[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/pelosi.jpg" height = 200 />] > CBO and JCT estimate that enacting both pieces of legislation...would produce a .blue[net reduction] of changes in federal deficits of .red[$138 billion] over the 2010–-2019 period as a result of changes in direct spending and revenue. ??? Congressional Budget Office, CBO; Joint Committee on Taxation, JCT Douglas Elmendorf: dean and Don K. Price Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi .orange[NEXT]: What's the problem --- ## Problem? > All such estimates are .red[uncertain] and that actual future impacts could differ significantly from the estimates of any given organization.--- U.S. Dep of Health and Human Services ??? On a separate estimation of the health care legislation -- .center[.Large[Uncertainty!]] --- ## Uncertainty/Alternative Assumptions CBO: > ...a .blue[net reduction] of changes in federal deficits of .red[$138 billion]... Douglas Holtz-Eakin (Syracuse University): > The health care reform legislation would .magenta[raise], not lower, federal deficits, by .red[$562 billion]. -- .center[**138+562 (700)** billion] ??? an economics professor at Syracuse University, 2003 director of CBO, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, and chief economic policy adviser to Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign .orange[NEXT]: why do people tend to ignore the uncertainties + Complicated + Leader --- ## Why Does Nobody Like Uncertainty? .center[<img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/uncertainty.png" height = 500 />] ??? left-up: fan chart from the Bank of England about inflation forecast --- ## Why Nobody Like Uncertainty? Lyndon Johnson, the 36th POTUS: > Ranges are for cattles. Give me a number. -- Jerry Hausman, MIT economist, the inventor of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test: > You can't give the client a bound. The client needs a point. --- class: middle, center .Large[What Should I Do?] -- .large[Being scientific, and in a .blue[flexible] way!] -- Especially when someone is .red[hearing] you! --- ## Take-Home Points 1. Landscape of the Field + Positivist vs. post-positivist -- 1. Steps of scientific inquiries: + Assumption + Theory &rarr; Method + Data &rarr; Conclusion -- 1. Being scientific, being flexible. --- ### Extended reading 1. The case of selective incapacitation 1. Hansen 2019 (for the "challenging" section) 1. Slides needed ahead?